Happy Birthday America!!
Consumer Confidence Market Volatility
Today I was at a wonderful party and the conversation is always the same these days; economy, media and Administration. One very seasoned successful business owner I have known for almost 20 years shared with me what he encourages his employees to do; "turn off the news and don't read the newspapers! We are sustaining our business. We don't want you to buy into talking ourselves into a never ending recession". He is a very smart employer.
Are there any positives? Will you ever hear any of them? Probably not. Here are just a couple to give you the idea of what we know:
* Economic activity advanced in 47 of the 50 states in May and over the past three months, according to the Philly Fed and 19 states registered positive growth over the last 12 months
* Half of the ten individual indicators made positive contributions in May, led by the interest rate spread and real money supply
* The national index rose 0.5% in May, the most since March 2000. It has risen 1.3% over the past three months, the most in six years, and equivalent to a 5.3% annualized rate of real GDP growth
We can not deny the seriousness of our current economic circumstances. However, we must analyze and evaluate the world as it is, how it is changing and make the best decisions accordingly, understanding the very fragile volatile environment we find ourselves in. Of course we expect this even when the Dow soared to 11,500. My comments to the media from August of 2009, "if we end 2009 at 10,000 we should fall on our knees and give thanks".
Many investors with "new monies" are considering investments they have considered inappropriate for their Risk Tolerance in the past, such as Preservation Strategies, Annuities and Private Investments. It is having all asset allocations, a mix of varying strategies, guarantee of principal and added alternative investments, nothing in correlation.
Over the years there have been private investment opportunities come my way and I have shared with select clients with cash looking for these opportunities, which don't come along that often; a few every 5 years. In the last several months I have had more of these Investment opportunities than in the last 10 years. This is a clear indication Banks are still not lending as in the past. They clearly still want to take very little if no risk at all which is not exactly the Entrepreneurial American Spirit! Opportunities could be provided by looking closely at some of these opportunities, and I will be sharing them with those of you with additional liquidity at hand.
Happy Independence Day!
